Despite extremely high rates, the population's lending activity is at a record level.
Despite extremely high rates, the population's lending activity is at a record level.
Over the past 12 months, the net increase in lending to individuals amounted to almost 7 trillion rubles (total issuance minus repayments), compared with a peak rate of 5 trillion by February 2022 and about 3.3 trillion in 2019.
Before the start of the monetary policy tightening cycle in August 2023, the annual growth rate of ruble lending was “only” 5 trillion.
In addition to the message about lending (https://t.me/spydell_finance/5433) according to updated data (all data in rubles):
• Mortgage loans – 18.9 trillion volume of debt, growth for the year – 3.9 trillion, the maximum rate of increase in lending over 12 months was by January 24 – 4.2 trillion, the peak growth rate was previously by March 22 – 2.7 trillion.
• Consumer loans – 14.6 trillion, annual growth – 1.96 trillion, which is almost comparable to the historical maximum of credit activity for 12 months by January 22 at the level of 2 trillion.
• Car loans – 2 trillion, annual growth – 0.7 trillion, which is an absolute record, because before the SVO, the maximum growth rate was only 0.25 trillion per year.
• Other loans – 1.1 trillion, annual growth – 0.26 trillion, analysis of this segment is not of interest.
As you can see, the rate of increase in lending is breaking all records, and this is in an environment of high rates.
In the analysis, it is important to compare the three-year period before the coronavirus, the credit boom in 2021, the growth in lending in the year before the tightening (Aug. 22-Jul. 23) and from Aug. 23 to Apr. 24. Further comparison will be the rate of change in the amount of debt in annual terms (%) in the above sequence.
• Total lending – 18.1, 22.3, 18.3, 21.9%
• Mortgage loans – 20.1, 26.6, 22.8, 26.6%
• Consumer loans - 17, 19.4, 13, 13.2%
• Car loans – 15.4, 22.1, 18.9, 54.9%
The growth rate of loans has increased for all types of lending, comparing the two periods after the CBO, and is in the region of a credit boom, even in percentage terms, and for auto lending - unimaginable madness.